October 2007

IZA DP No. 3121: Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions: An Application to the Investment Game

published separately as ‘Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions ‘in: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2012, 30 (1), 125 - 131 and as ‘Bounding Preference Parameters under Different Assumptions about Beliefs: a Partial Identification Approach’ in: Experimental Economics, 2010, 13, 334 - 345

We use spline interpolation to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function of an economic agent over the future realization of a continuous (possibly censored) random variable. The method proposed exploits information collected using a small number of probability questions on expectations and requires a weak prior knowledge of the shape of the underlying distribution. We find that eliciting 4 or 5 points on the cumulative distribution function of an agent is sufficient to accurately approximate a wide variety of underlying distributions. We show that estimated moments of general functions of the random variable can be computed analytically and/or using standard simulation techniques. We illustrate the usefulness of the method by estimating a simple model to asses the impact of expectations on investment decisions in a commonly used trust game.