@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp3121,
            	author={Bellemare, Charles and Bissonnette, Luc and Kröger, Sabine},
            	title={Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions: An Application to the Investment Game},
            	year={2007},
	month={Oct},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={3121},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp3121},
	abstract={We use spline interpolation to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function of an economic agent over the future realization of a continuous (possibly censored) random variable. The method proposed exploits information collected using a small number of probability questions on expectations and requires a weak prior knowledge of the shape of the underlying distribution. We find that eliciting 4 or 5 points on the cumulative distribution function of an agent is sufficient to accurately approximate a wide variety of underlying distributions. We show that estimated moments of general functions of the random variable can be computed analytically and/or using standard simulation techniques. We illustrate the usefulness of the method by estimating a simple model to asses the impact of expectations on investment decisions in a commonly used trust game.},
	keywords={decision making under uncertainty;approximation of subjective expectations;spline interpolation},
            }