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IZA Discussion Paper No. 18362
February 2026
Agricultural Trade and Geopolitics: A Comparative Analysis of China-U.S. and China-Canada Trade Relations
Tony Fang, Torin Pracek, Jianghua Chen, Wen-Hao Chen

This paper draws on trade data, academic literature, government reports, and policy documents to contextualize historic trade dynamics and trace the buildup to recent disputes. Using a comparative framework, we analyze how Sino-U.S. and Sino-Canada relations have shaped and continue to shape agri-food trade flows. Our analysis reveals structural vulnerabilities in U.S. and Canadian agricultural exports to China, emphasizing how reliance on a narrow set of commodities exposes both countries to economic losses resulting from China’s trade policies. Simultaneously, China’s dependence on a limited number of suppliers for large volumes of key commodities makes it vulnerable to price volatility and supply uncertainty.

Communications
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Network Coordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

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