@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18362, author={Fang, Tony and Pracek, Torin and Chen, Jianghua and Chen, Wen-Hao}, title={Agricultural Trade and Geopolitics: A Comparative Analysis of China-U.S. and China-Canada Trade Relations}, year={2026}, month={Feb}, institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)}, address={Bonn}, type={IZA Discussion Paper}, number={18362}, url={https://www.iza.org/index.php/publications/dp18362}, abstract={This paper draws on trade data, academic literature, government reports, and policy documents to contextualize historic trade dynamics and trace the buildup to recent disputes. Using a comparative framework, we analyze how Sino-U.S. and Sino-Canada relations have shaped and continue to shape agri-food trade flows. Our analysis reveals structural vulnerabilities in U.S. and Canadian agricultural exports to China, emphasizing how reliance on a narrow set of commodities exposes both countries to economic losses resulting from China’s trade policies. Simultaneously, China’s dependence on a limited number of suppliers for large volumes of key commodities makes it vulnerable to price volatility and supply uncertainty.}, keywords={agri-trade;bilateral agreements;tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers}, }