December 2007

IZA DP No. 3198: On the Multivariate Analysis of the "Lisbon Process"

Arno Tausch, Almas Heshmati, Chemen S. J. Bajalan

published in: History & Mathematics: Processes and Models of Global Dynamics, Volgograd, Russia, 2010, 92 – 137

Starting from Professor Kornai’s assertion about the necessity to focus on the long-term perspectives of the transformation process, we analyze in this paper the Lisbon performance of the countries of the European Union from such a long-term, structural perspective. We present in a simple form the mathematical methods used in this essay. Then, we analyze Lisbon indicator performance by factor analytical means. We conclude that only a Schumpeterian vision of capitalism as a process of “creative destruction” – or rather – “destructive creation” can explain these contradictions, which we empirically reveal in this analysis, and which beset the “Lisbon process” from the very beginning. Our factor analysis tells us that a majority of the kernel Lisbon indicators go indeed hand in hand with high comparative price levels; high freight transport; high greenhouse gas emissions; low business investment rates; and low youth educational attainment rates. We conclude that in reality we are facing four underlying and contradictory processes including a Lisbon productivity factor; high eco-social exclusion; the employment performance; and the neo-liberal European model.