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IZA Discussion Paper No. 15366
June 2022
Off to a Bad Start: Youth Nonemployment and Labor Market Outcomes Later in Life
Mattia Filomena, Isabella Giorgetti, Matteo Picchio

published online in: Empirical Economics, 08 April 2025

We estimate the effect of nonemployment experienced by Italian youth after leaving secondary school on subsequent labor market outcomes. We focus on the impact on earnings and labor market participation both in the short- and in the long-term, up to 25 years since school completion. By estimating a factor analytic model which controls for time-varying unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the negative effect of nonemployment on earnings is especially persistent, being sizeable and statistically significant up to 25 years after school completion, for both men and women. Penalties in terms of participation last instead shorter; they disappear by the 10th year after school completion. Hence, early nonemployment operates by persistently locking the youth who get off to a bad start into low-wage jobs.

Kommunikation
Mark Fallak
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+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
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+352 585-855-501
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Christina Gathmann
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