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IZA Discussion Paper No. 18523
April 2026
Returns to Education in the United States: A Comparison of OLS and Double Machine Learning Methods
Al Mansor Helal, Ryotaro Hiraki, Harry Anthony Patrinos

This study examines the economic returns to education in the U.S. using 2024 CPS data and compares Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework incorporating models such as random forests, boosted trees, lasso, GAMs, and neural networks (MLP). Results show consistent returns of 8 to 9 percent per additional year of schooling across methods. Simulations reveal that all predictors perform well under linear assumptions if hyperparameters are optimally adjusted, while OLS/Lasso suffer from nonlinearity. Findings suggest that OLS remains robust in low-dimensional, near-linear contexts, offering practical guidance for economists and policymakers balancing model complexity and interpretability in education research.

Kommunikation
Mark Fallak
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+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
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+352 585-855-501
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Christina Gathmann
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Das IZA@LISER-Netzwerk ist eine weltweite Gemeinschaft für exzellente Forschung in der Arbeitsmarktökonomie und angrenzenden Fachgebieten. Nach dem Wechsel von Bonn wird das Netzwerk nun am Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) koordiniert.

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