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IZA Discussion Paper No. 16642
December 2023
Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism

published in: Journal of Law and Economics, 2024, 67 (4), 951 - 986

This paper examines how unemployment and cultural anxiety have triggered different dimensions of the current populism in the United States. Specifically, I exploit the Great Recession (GR) and the 2014 Northern Triangle immigrant influx (IM) to investigate the effects of recent unemployment and unauthorized immigration on attitudes related to populism. I find that recent unemployment during GR, rather than existing unemployment from before GR, increased the probability of attitudes against wealthy elites by 15 percentage points (PP). Such attitudes are connected with left-wing populism. I identify perceived economic unfairness as a mechanism through which recent unemployment drove left-wing populism. However, cultural anxiety rather than economic distress more likely led to the over 10 PP rise in the probability of anti-immigration attitudes during IM. These attitudes are related to right-wing populism. This study intentionally links distinct economic and cultural driving forces, respectively, to different types of populism, while still accounting for their potential interaction effects. This strategy facilitates disentangling the economic and cultural triggers of the currently surging populism.

Kommunikation
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Netzwerkkoordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

Das IZA@LISER-Netzwerk ist eine weltweite Gemeinschaft für exzellente Forschung in der Arbeitsmarktökonomie und angrenzenden Fachgebieten. Nach dem Wechsel von Bonn wird das Netzwerk nun am Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) koordiniert.

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