October 2012

No. 6923: The Effect of Weather-Induced Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: Evidence from Uganda

published in: World Bank Economic Review, 2015, 29 (2), 385-412

Relying on census data collected in 2002 and historical weather data for Uganda, we estimate the impact of weather-induced internal migration on the probability for non-migrants living in the destination regions to be employed. Our results reveal a significant negative impact. Consistent with the prediction of a simple theoretical model, they further show that this negative impact is significantly stronger in regions with lower road density and therefore less conducive to capital mobility: a 10 percentage points increase in the net in-migration rate in these areas decreases the probability of being employed of non-migrants by more than 20 percentage points.