December 2025

IZA DP No. 18350: The 'Despotic Leviathan' and Its Financial Architecture: How IMF Conditionalities Deepen Inequality

Santosh Mehrotra, Shady Hassan

This paper examines how IMF policies contribute to the inequality in MENA, and to a Middle-Income Trap (MIT). Developing a theory expanding Acemoglu and Robinson’s “Narrow Corridor” framework, it shows how IMF conditions align domestic elite incentives with creditor interests through a principal-agent lens. Using 2020-2025 data, its analysis reveals IMF monetary policies create rent-seeking structures that institutionalize inequality and suppress growth. The paper identifies an “engineered r>g dynamic” as a quantifiable signature of this extraction, empirically verified in Egypt. It establishes a causal link between financial/monetary policy (interest rates, debt compounding) and the “Despotic Leviathan” state formation.