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IZA Discussion Paper No. 16962
April 2024
The Effect of Conflict on Refugees' Return and Integration: Evidence from Ukraine

What is the causal effect of conflict on refugees' return and integration? To answer this question, we launched a panel survey of Ukrainian refugees across Europe in June 2022 and combined it with geocoded conflict data. Most refugees plan to return, and initial return intentions strongly predict actual return. Those who initially plan to settle outside Ukraine integrate faster. Increased conflict intensity in the home municipality discourages return there, but not to Ukraine as a whole. It also has no effect on the likelihood of working. Liberation of the home district increases return, while increased pessimism about the outcome of the war reduces return intentions.

Kommunikation
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Netzwerkkoordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

Das IZA@LISER-Netzwerk ist eine weltweite Gemeinschaft für exzellente Forschung in der Arbeitsmarktökonomie und angrenzenden Fachgebieten. Nach dem Wechsel von Bonn wird das Netzwerk nun am Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) koordiniert.

Über das IZA@LISER Network
Contact
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Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
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Maison des Sciences Humaines
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Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH i. L.
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Phone: +49 228 3894-0 | Fax: +49 228 3894-510
E-Mail: info@iza.org | Web: www.iza.org
Represented by: Martin T. Clemens (Liquidator)