forthcoming in the Geneva Papers of Risk and Insurance https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1057/s41288-026-00384-5?sharing_token=D1pNtkztYw-04eVwS78i8FxOt48VBPO10Uv7D6sAgHvNJreC9gOXTOoXDsqXPT5SnRtdi3bnQLORhTAUVg51TAD6jzQGoYVL1OKEv25GsqEv2DJAjRiuAp4uw71ipp1-B1VOAZMhHH0j9yow_3xEj4vLIrtHRz4oUX9VvUoLCdc%3D