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IZA Discussion Paper No. 5469
January 2011
Population Growth and Multiple Equilibria: Inferences from a Modified Ramsey Model

The demographic transition is introduced into the otherwise standard Ramsey model to generate multiple equilibria, poverty traps, and demography-driven cycles. The model is calibrated for global data to explore the demographic conditions under which multiplicity is realized. Three cases arise, referring either to unique or multiple equilibria, and to transitional cycles. The calibrated model shows that multiple equilibria can explain a considerable fraction of the global income gap. The model provides a test to distinguish the trapped countries from those which just suffer from a long-lasting demographic recession, showing that the latter are more common than the former. Therefore, the economic effects of the demographic transition, even though considerable, are temporary rather than permanent.

Kommunikation
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
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Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

Das IZA@LISER-Netzwerk ist eine weltweite Gemeinschaft für exzellente Forschung in der Arbeitsmarktökonomie und angrenzenden Fachgebieten. Nach dem Wechsel von Bonn wird das Netzwerk nun am Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) koordiniert.

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