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IZA Discussion Paper No. 9680
January 2016
Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment

published in: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2018, 10 (3), 101-127

This paper provides revealed-preference estimates of the monetary value of avoiding job search in a high-unemployment labor market by examining the behavior of military servicemembers deciding between reenlisting and exiting the military. We find that servicemembers would sacrifice 1.5-2% in earnings in exchange for avoiding a one percentage point increase in the home-state unemployment rate. Comparing these estimates to realized losses in post-service civilian earnings resulting from exiting the military during times of high unemployment suggests that mitigating factors (e.g., leisure, private and public transfers) offset less than one-third of the earnings losses caused by entering a weak labor market.

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Mark Fallak
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+352 585-855-526
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Olga Nottmeyer
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+352 585-855-501
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Christina Gathmann
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Das IZA@LISER-Netzwerk ist eine weltweite Gemeinschaft für exzellente Forschung in der Arbeitsmarktökonomie und angrenzenden Fachgebieten. Nach dem Wechsel von Bonn wird das Netzwerk nun am Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) koordiniert.

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