We use cookies to provide you with the best possible website experience. This includes cookies that are necessary for the operation of the site, as well as cookies used for anonymous statistics, comfort settings, or displaying personalized content. You can decide which categories you want to allow. Please note that depending on your settings, some features of the website may not be available.

Cookie settings

These necessary cookies are required to enable the core functionality of the website. Opting out of these cookies is not possible.

cb-enable
This cookie stores the user's cookie consent status for the current domain. Expiry: 1 year.
laravel_session
Stores the session ID to recognize the user when the page reloads and to restore their login session. Expiry: 2 hours.
XSRF-TOKEN
Provides CSRF protection for forms. Expiry: 2 hours.
IZA Discussion Paper No. 11840
September 2018
Capital Income Risk and the Dynamics of the Wealth Distribution

published in: Economic Modelling , 2023, 122, 106243

In this paper, we develop and numerically solve a model of idiosyncratic labour income and idiosyncratic interest rates to predict the evolution of a wealth distribution over time. Stochastic labour income follows a deterministic growth trend and it fluctuates between a wage and unemployment benefits. Stochastic interest rates are drawn initially (ex-ante heterogeneity), fluctuate between two values (ex-post heterogeneity) and can differ in their arrival rates (financial types). A low interest rate implies a stationary long-run wealth distribution, a high interest rate implies non-stationary wealth distributions. Our baseline model matches the evolution of the wealth distribution of the NLSY 79 cohort from 1986 to 2008 very well. When we start in 1986 and target 2008, we obtain a fit of 96.1%: The fit for non-targeted years is 77.0% on average. When targeting the evolution of wealth, the fit is 88.9%. With a more flexible interest rate distribution, the fit can even be increased to 96.7%. Comparing calibrated mean returns with data shows that the flexible interest rate distribution has empirically not convincing "superstar states". In the baseline model, mean returns are empirically convincing. Surprisingly, the standard deviation of model returns is an order of magnitude lower than the empirical standard deviation.

Kommunikation
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Netzwerkkoordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

Das IZA@LISER-Netzwerk ist eine weltweite Gemeinschaft für exzellente Forschung in der Arbeitsmarktökonomie und angrenzenden Fachgebieten. Nach dem Wechsel von Bonn wird das Netzwerk nun am Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) koordiniert.

Über das IZA@LISER Network
Contact
IZA Network (Current Site Operator):

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
11, Porte des Sciences
Maison des Sciences Humaines
L-4366 Esch-sur-Alzette / Belval, Luxembourg

IZA Institute (In Liquidation):

Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH i. L.
Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 5-9, 53113 Bonn. Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894-0 | Fax: +49 228 3894-510
E-Mail: info@iza.org | Web: www.iza.org
Represented by: Martin T. Clemens (Liquidator)