We use cookies to provide you with the best possible website experience. This includes cookies that are necessary for the operation of the site, as well as cookies used for anonymous statistics, comfort settings, or displaying personalized content. You can decide which categories you want to allow. Please note that depending on your settings, some features of the website may not be available.

Cookie settings

These necessary cookies are required to enable the core functionality of the website. Opting out of these cookies is not possible.

cb-enable
This cookie stores the user's cookie consent status for the current domain. Expiry: 1 year.
laravel_session
Stores the session ID to recognize the user when the page reloads and to restore their login session. Expiry: 2 hours.
XSRF-TOKEN
Provides CSRF protection for forms. Expiry: 2 hours.
IZA Discussion Paper No. 19034
October 2026
When the Moon Makes You Drive Like You've Had Too Much Wine: The Lunar Cycle and Fatal Car Crashes
Adeline Taylor, Luke Koulouris, James Flynn

We use variation in nighttime light across the lunar cycle as a novel, plausibly exogenous source of variation in sleep to study how sleep loss affects fatal traffic accidents. Linking 1.8 million fatal crashes (FARS, 1975–2023) to the timing of 606 full moons, along with nearly 3 million sleep responses from the BRFSS and the American Time Use Survey, we show that sleep worsens and fatal crashes rise in the days after the full moon. Daily traffic fatalities increase by 0.65% in the four days after the full moon overall, and by 1.78% in clear-sky states during non-winter months, when clouds are less likely to block moonlight. These effects vanish during total lunar eclipses and are concentrated in daytime hours, when sleep loss can impair driving but moonlight cannot affect visibility. We estimate that the lunar cycle causes 35–38 traffic deaths annually, costing about half a billion dollars per year. By separating the sleep channel from the visibility channel that complicates studies of daylight saving time, our design shows that even small, recurring sleep disruptions impose large social costs.

Communications
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer-ext@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Network Coordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

About IZA@LISER Network
Contact
IZA@LISER NETWORK (Current Site Operator):

Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)
11, Porte des Sciences
Maison des Sciences Humaines
L-4366 Esch-sur-Alzette / Belval, Luxembourg

IZA Institute (In Liquidation):

Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH i. L.
Schaumburg-Lippe-Str. 5-9, 53113 Bonn. Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894-0 | Fax: +49 228 3894-510
E-Mail: info@iza.org | Web: www.iza.org
Represented by: Martin T. Clemens (Liquidator)