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IZA Discussion Paper No. 18860
August 2026
Creative Financing and Public Moral Hazard: Evidence from Medicaid and the Nursing Home Industry
Martin B. Hackmann, Juan Rojas, Nicolas R. Ziebarth

Medicaid finances U.S. nursing home care through federal matching grants that reward verifiable volume, not quality. We show that states exploit this through creative financing, diverting funds earmarked for nursing homes. This turns the federal match into a pure volume subsidy and generates a novel allocative distortion we term public moral hazard. We develop the mechanism theoretically and test its predictions using 24 federal audits and administrative microdata from Indiana. Event studies show Medicaid dementia volume rises 12\%; structural quality estimates show the expansion concentrates in the lowest-quality facilities, reallocating patients toward worse providers and reducing one-year survival.

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Mark Fallak
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+352 585-855-526
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Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer-ext@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
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Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

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