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IZA Discussion Paper No. 18631
May 2026
The Value of Reliable Statistics

On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency’s data were “rigged.” In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases uncertainty for investors, businesses, and households. We use an event-study design to estimate the effect of the firing on policy uncertainty, and then map that increase in uncertainty into implied macroeconomic outcomes. This yields a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the marginal value of public trust in official statistics. Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the agency’s budget.

Communications
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer-ext@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Network Coordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

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