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IZA Discussion Paper No. 16334
July 2023
Information and the Formation of Inflation Expectations by Firms: Evidence from a Survey of Israeli Firms

This study analyzes how firms form their inflation expectations during a regime change in monetary policy and a transition to a low-inflation environment. Using the Bank of Israel survey of firms, we document the basic properties of firms' inflation expectations and examine how Israeli firms update their inflation expectations after receiving new information about inflation or monetary policy. We find that even after successful de-dollarization and disinflation a positive inflation surprise leads to a sizable upward adjustment in inflation expectations for the next year and quarter. A surprise hike in the monetary interest rate leads to a downward adjustment in inflation expectations.

Communications
Mark Fallak
mark.fallak@liser.lu
+352 585-855-526
World of Labour
Olga Nottmeyer
olga.nottmeyer@liser.lu
+352 585-855-501
Network Coordination
Christina Gathmann
christina.gathmann@liser.lu

The IZA@LISER Network is a global community of scholars dedicated to excellence in labor economics and related fields, now coordinated at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER) following its transition from Bonn.

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