IZA DP No. 12354: Voting Power and Survival: The Case of a Ruling Party
pablished as "Success, Survival and Probabilistic Voting: The Case of a ruling Party" in: Journal Homo Oeconomicus, 2019, 36(3), 209-226
In this article, we empirically study the survival of the ruling party in parliamentary democracies using a hazard rate model. We define survival of a crisis as being successful in a critical vote in the parliament. We develop a general probabilistic model of political crises and test it empirically. We find that during crises, parties in the parliament are likely to vote independently of each other. Thus, we receive as an empirical result what the previous voting power literature assumed.