%0 Report %A Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia %A Pamminger, Christoph %A Weber, Andrea %A Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf %T When Is the Best Time to Give Birth? %D 2014 %8 2014 Aug %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) %C Bonn %7 IZA Discussion Paper %N 8396 %U https://www.iza.org/publications/dp8396 %X Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track. %K family gap %K Transition Data %K Markov Chain Monte Carlo %K timing of birth %K Multinomial Logit %K fertility %K Panel Data