@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp8396, author={Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia and Pamminger, Christoph and Weber, Andrea and Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf}, title={When Is the Best Time to Give Birth?}, year={2014}, month={Aug}, institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)}, address={Bonn}, type={IZA Discussion Paper}, number={8396}, url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp8396}, abstract={Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track.}, keywords={family gap;Transition Data;Markov Chain Monte Carlo;timing of birth;Multinomial Logit;fertility;Panel Data}, }