TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Dohmen, Thomas
AU  - Falk, Armin
AU  - Huffman, David B.
AU  - Marklein, Felix
AU  - Sunde, Uwe
        TI  - Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample
        PY  - 2009/May/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 4170
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp4170
        AB  - Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings.
        KW  - long-term unemployment
KW  - hot hand fallacy
KW  - representative design
KW  - gambler's fallacy
KW  - probability judgment
KW  - bounded rationality
KW  - financial decision making
        ER  -