%0 Report
        %A Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola
%A Jessen, Jonas
%A Ong, Pinchuan
%A Pan, Jessica
        %T Assessing Hypothetical Scenarios for Estimating Labor Supply Responses: Evidence from a Pension Reform
        %D 2026
        %8 2026 Sep
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 18944
        %U https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18944
        %X We assess whether survey responses to hypothetical policy scenarios can recover actual labor supply responses from policy variation. We study the German Mütterrente, a pension benefit crediting parents for child-rearing, benchmarking against Artmann et al. (forthcoming). Surveying mothers and fathers about a hypothetical reform modeled on that expansion, we find that mothers expect to reduce their labor supply, with an implied marginal propensity to earn of −0.65—close to the quasi-experimental estimate of −0.54. The response is sensible across subgroups, falls mainly on the extensive margin, and spills over to fathers. In the aggregate, spousal predictions match partners’ own reports.
        %K marginal propensity to earn
%K pension reform
%K hypothetical scenarios