@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18944,
            	author={Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola and Jessen, Jonas and Ong, Pinchuan and Pan, Jessica},
            	title={Assessing Hypothetical Scenarios for Estimating Labor Supply Responses: Evidence from a Pension Reform},
            	year={2026},
	month={Sep},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={18944},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18944},
	abstract={We assess whether survey responses to hypothetical policy scenarios can recover actual labor supply responses from policy variation. We study the German Mütterrente, a pension benefit crediting parents for child-rearing, benchmarking against Artmann et al. (forthcoming). Surveying mothers and fathers about a hypothetical reform modeled on that expansion, we find that mothers expect to reduce their labor supply, with an implied marginal propensity to earn of −0.65—close to the quasi-experimental estimate of −0.54. The response is sensible across subgroups, falls mainly on the extensive margin, and spills over to fathers. In the aggregate, spousal predictions match partners’ own reports.},
	keywords={marginal propensity to earn;pension reform;hypothetical scenarios},
            }