@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18914, author={Snell, Andy and Almeida, Enzo and Martins, Pedro S. and Thomas, Jonathan P.}, title={Minimum Wages and Worker Retention: The Roles of Labour Concentration and Employment Protection}, year={2026}, month={Sep}, institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)}, address={Bonn}, type={IZA Discussion Paper}, number={18914}, url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18914}, abstract={How are incumbent workers impacted by minimum wage increases? Is labour market concentration an important moderating factor? We address these questions by presenting a new model, drawing on comprehensive employer-employee matched panel data from Portugal, and considering individual mandated wage rises from both national and collectively bargained minimum wages. We find that employment protection plays a key role in these effects: workers under permanent contracts are almost completely insulated from the exit hazards associated with wage bites while workers in temporary (fixed-term) contracts are exposed to these hazards. Labour concentration can significantly reduce negative effects on temporary workers, by up to 60\%. A model of monopsonistic competition with firing costs rationalises these patterns.}, keywords={minimum wages;collective bargaining;temporary contracts;labour market power}, }