@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18909,
            	author={Cahuc, Pierre and Carry, Pauline and Malherbet, Franck and Martins, Pedro S.},
            	title={Employment Protection Reforms: From Firm-Level Effects to Aggregate Outcomes},
            	year={2026},
	month={Sep},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={18909},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18909},
	abstract={Employment protection legislation often varies with firm or establishment size and age, and many evaluations of EPL reforms exploit these thresholds. This paper develops a search-and-matching model with multi-establishment firms to disentangle direct effects from general-equilibrium spillovers. We combine the model with quasi-experimental evidence from a 2009 Portuguese reform that restricted fixed-term contracts in young establishments of large firms. Spillovers barely distort the reduced-form estimate, yet they overturn the aggregate conclusion: extrapolating the reduced-form estimate implies a 1.51% employment decline, compared with a 0.11% increase in general equilibrium. Counterfactuals show that conditioning EPL on size versus age can yield opposite welfare effects, even when employment effects are similar, and that fixed-term contract and firing restrictions must be evaluated jointly.},
	keywords={employment protection legislation;general-equilibrium spillovers;fixed-term contracts;contingent regulation;directed search;structural estimation},
            }