TY - RPRT AU - Martins, Pedro S. AU - Silva, Pedro Luís AU - Temudo, Madalena AU - Pinho, Ana TI - The Employment–Education Trade-off in School-Based Vocational Education: Evidence from Peers’ Choices PY - 2026/Aug/ PB - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) CY - Bonn T2 - IZA Discussion Paper IS - 18884 UR - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18884 AB - Vocational education and training (VET) may accelerate employment transitions at the cost of reducing further education participation. We quantify this trade-off in a school-based VET system, drawing on linked administrative and survey data in Portugal. We use the share of lower-secondary classmates who subsequently choose upper-secondary VET as an instrument for individual VET enrollment. We find a pronounced trade-off in early post-school transitions: vocational enrollment increases employment by 26-34 percentage points and improves several job quality indicators; however, VET reduces further education participation by 30-40 percentage points and is associated with higher unemployment. KW - school-to-work transition KW - peer choices KW - school-based vocational education KW - NEET KW - job quality ER -