%0 Report
        %A Mello, Ursula
%A Melo, Ana Paula
%A Santos, Alei
        %T Shifting Pathways: Displacement, Substitution, and the Equilibrium Effects of Preferential College Admissions
        %D 2026
        %8 2026 Aug
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 18880
        %U https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18880
        %X Admission policies can reshape educational pathways before college entry by changing opportunities and incentives to invest. We study these responses using Brazil’s 2012 Federal Quota Law, which expanded reserved seats for underrepresented students in elite public universities. Exploiting variation induced by pre-existing quota policies, we implement matched difference-in-differences and follow students through college completion. We find that targeted students increase high-school completion, exam participation, and college enrollment. In contrast, non-targeted students substitute
toward private institutions rather than leave higher education and become more likely to complete college. Together, these responses reveal anticipatory adjustments and system-wide reallocation across higher education institutions.
        %K affirmative action
%K college admissions
%K human capital investment
%K educational attainment
%K displacement and reallocation