TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Deutscher, Nathan
AU  - Siminski, Peter
        TI  - Intergenerational Welfare Persistence: Causal Evidence from Vietnam-Era Draft Lotteries
        PY  - 2026/Aug/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 18876
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18876
        AB  - We contribute to understanding the causal mechanisms of intergenerational welfare persistence. We study veterans’ pensions, leveraging Australia’s Vietnam-era draft lotteries for identification and over three decades of administrative data with universal coverage. Deployed service increased veterans’ expected welfare receipt by 7.5 years (100.5%) and reduced employment (3.2 years; 30.2%). Effects for veterans’ spouses were qualitatively similar and approximately half as large. How did this affect their children? Despite high statistical power, we find almost no lasting effects on child outcomes, including welfare, employment, income, education, partnering and fertility. Direct estimates of causal intergenerational welfare elasticities are precise zeros, highlighting that welfare receipthttps://legacy.iza.org/en/webcontent/personnel/photos/personal_menu does not always spill over to the next generation.
        KW  - intergenerational mobility
KW  - welfare dependency
KW  - veterans’ benefits
KW  - disability pensions
KW  - conscription
KW  - labour supply
        ER  -