TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Gehrsitz, Markus
AU  - Traxler, Christian
        TI  - The Effect of Vehicle Taxes on Fleet Exit
        PY  - 2026/Jul/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 18807
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18807
        AB  - This paper studies how vehicle taxation shapes fleet exit. We exploit Germany's 2008/9 circulation tax reform, which generated a sharp discontinuity in annual tax liabilities at a registration cutoff date. Using administrative micro-data covering the universe of registered vehicles during the second half of 2008, we apply a difference-in-discontinuities design to estimate the effect of annual circulation taxes on permanent deregistrations. A 10 percent higher tax increases the share of deregistered vehicles after six years by about 2.8 percent. Duration analyses exploiting within-model variation in taxes yield closely consistent estimates. The effect seems to be mainly driven by exports rather than vehicle retirement.
        KW  - vehicle taxation
KW  - circulation tax
KW  - deregistrations
KW  - difference-in-discontinuities
        ER  -