%0 Report
        %A Gehrsitz, Markus
%A Traxler, Christian
        %T The Effect of Vehicle Taxes on Fleet Exit
        %D 2026
        %8 2026 Jul
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 18807
        %U https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18807
        %X This paper studies how vehicle taxation shapes fleet exit. We exploit Germany's 2008/9 circulation tax reform, which generated a sharp discontinuity in annual tax liabilities at a registration cutoff date. Using administrative micro-data covering the universe of registered vehicles during the second half of 2008, we apply a difference-in-discontinuities design to estimate the effect of annual circulation taxes on permanent deregistrations. A 10 percent higher tax increases the share of deregistered vehicles after six years by about 2.8 percent. Duration analyses exploiting within-model variation in taxes yield closely consistent estimates. The effect seems to be mainly driven by exports rather than vehicle retirement.
        %K vehicle taxation
%K circulation tax
%K deregistrations
%K difference-in-discontinuities