@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18799,
            	author={Campana, Chiara and Koning, Pierre and Lindeboom, Maarten},
            	title={Does Stricter Disability Screening Lead to Improved Targeting on Long-term Health and Employment Outcomes?},
            	year={2026},
	month={Jul},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={18799},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18799},
	abstract={While evidence points at potentially strong effects of stricter screening and tightening eligibility criteria for Disability Insurance (DI), little is known about their targeting effects: are screened-out workers also those with better future health and more ability to work?  To shed light on this, we employ Regression-Discontinuity-in-Time regressions that compare the long-term outcomes of DI application cohorts just before and after a reform in the Netherlands. The reform led to stricter screening in the sickness period before DI application and reduced the number of applicants by 33%. Up to 18 years after application, we find persistently lower survival rates and lower employment rates of post-reform cohorts.  Using detailed information on the future chronic diseases of these cohorts and the application diagnoses, we next construct indices capturing long-term expected survival (a “Survival Health Index”, SHI) and long-term employment prospects (a “Work Ability Index”, WAI). We find that the self-screening induced by the reform was stronger for applicants with work disabilities than for health disabilities. This is largely due to a decline in applications of workers with mental and musculoskeletal health conditions .},
	keywords={Disability Insurance (DI);health;mental health;screening;targeting},
            }