TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Mikula, Stepan
AU  - Sabatini, Fabio
        TI  - The Cost of Industrial Destruction: Evidence from Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries
        PY  - 2026/Jul/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 18772
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18772
        AB  - We study the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries, combining a verified event-level strike record with quality-screened daily satellite radiance from NASA Black Marble. The analysis covers 29 large Russian refineries, 22 of which sustain verified direct hits over June 2022-May 2026. Using a monthly staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that nighttime radiance falls immediately and persistently after a refinery enters the strike campaign: by roughly 30 percent in the innermost measured ring and by 15-18 percent within five kilometers, with the effect attenuating until it becomes small at twenty-five kilometers.  A complementary daily instrumental-variables design uses directional wind alignment to shift strike incidence and trace the strike-day dynamic. Radiance rises at short horizons, consistent with a fire-related light signature corroborated by NASA FIRMS detections, and turns negative at a six-month horizon, with weak-instrument-robust inference. Applying the same satellite product and empirical specification to 106 non-refinery deep-strike targets produces no comparable contraction, weighing against a generic-war-disruption interpretation.
        KW  - conflict economics
KW  - industrial destruction
KW  - drone warfare
KW  - nighttime lights
KW  - staggered difference-in-differences
KW  - instrumental variables
KW  - Russia-Ukraine war
        ER  -