@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18772,
            	author={Mikula, Stepan and Sabatini, Fabio},
            	title={The Cost of Industrial Destruction: Evidence from Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries},
            	year={2026},
	month={Jul},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={18772},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18772},
	abstract={We study the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries, combining a verified event-level strike record with quality-screened daily satellite radiance from NASA Black Marble. The analysis covers 29 large Russian refineries, 22 of which sustain verified direct hits over June 2022-May 2026. Using a monthly staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that nighttime radiance falls immediately and persistently after a refinery enters the strike campaign: by roughly 30 percent in the innermost measured ring and by 15-18 percent within five kilometers, with the effect attenuating until it becomes small at twenty-five kilometers.  A complementary daily instrumental-variables design uses directional wind alignment to shift strike incidence and trace the strike-day dynamic. Radiance rises at short horizons, consistent with a fire-related light signature corroborated by NASA FIRMS detections, and turns negative at a six-month horizon, with weak-instrument-robust inference. Applying the same satellite product and empirical specification to 106 non-refinery deep-strike targets produces no comparable contraction, weighing against a generic-war-disruption interpretation.},
	keywords={conflict economics;industrial destruction;drone warfare;nighttime lights;staggered difference-in-differences;instrumental variables;Russia-Ukraine war},
            }