@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18770, author={Aoki-Beattie, Yu and Arulampalam, Wiji and Lloyd, Neil}, title={Proximity to Fast-Food Outlets and Adolescent z-BMI: Accounting for Persistent Health Dynamics}, year={2026}, month={Jul}, institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)}, address={Bonn}, type={IZA Discussion Paper}, number={18770}, url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18770}, abstract={We estimate the causal effect of exposure to fast-food outlets on adolescent z-BMI using the UK Millennium Cohort Study linked to comprehensive geospatial data. We develop a novel approach to modelling z-BMI persistence by clustering early childhood z-BMI trajectories, allowing us to distinguish baseline obesity susceptibility from contemporaneous environmental effects. Identification exploits the near-universal transition from primary to secondary school, generating plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to fast-food outlets around schools. We find that adolescents with at least one major-brand outlet near school have, on average, a 0.158 standard-deviation higher z-BMI. Effects decline with distance, are limited around the home, and do not extend to other food outlets.}, keywords={adolescent obesity;body mass index;fast food;school food environment}, }