@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18682,
            	author={Gehrsitz, Markus and Grant, Sam and McIntyre, Stuart},
            	title={From Custody to Community: Post-Release Supervision and Re-Offending},
            	year={2026},
	month={May},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={18682},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18682},
	abstract={Many criminal offenders are managed in the community. We combine a natural experiment with administrative data from England and Wales to assess a key community correctional policy: post-release supervision. We find that supervision reduces re-offending in the first four weeks after prison release by 15%, in part due to the incapacitation of prolific offenders who are recalled to prison for violations of their probation terms. Supervision also causes a 5.5% reduction in re-offending three years after release. This effect persistence, which is even stronger for first-time prisoners, suggests that post-release supervision is a cost-efficient way to induces genuine behavioural change.},
	keywords={crime;re-offending;probation;supervision},
            }