TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Kurmann, Andre
AU  - Lalé, Etienne
AU  - Martin, Julien
        TI  - When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets
        PY  - 2026/May/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 18626
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18626
        AB  - We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.
        KW  - tourism
KW  - smartphone data
KW  - employment
KW  - business dynamics
        ER  -