%0 Report
        %A Kurmann, Andre
%A Lalé, Etienne
%A Martin, Julien
        %T When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets
        %D 2026
        %8 2026 May
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 18626
        %U https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18626
        %X We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.
        %K tourism
%K smartphone data
%K employment
%K business dynamics