@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp18626,
            	author={Kurmann, Andre and Lalé, Etienne and Martin, Julien},
            	title={When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada's 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets},
            	year={2026},
	month={May},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={18626},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18626},
	abstract={We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.},
	keywords={tourism;smartphone data;employment;business dynamics},
            }