TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Epper, Thomas
AU  - Ibsen, Kristoffer
AU  - Koch, Alexander K.
AU  - Nafziger, Julia
        TI  - Predicting University Dropouts: Evidence on the Value of Student Expectations and Motivation
        PY  - 2026/Mar/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 18439
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18439
        AB  - University dropout is costly, making it a policy priority to identify factors that predict dropout. Using a survey experiment with incoming first-year students linked to long-run administrative outcomes, we assess which information improves dropout prediction beyond standard university records. A small number of targeted, study-specific survey items - especially motivation and expectations about degree completion - substantially improve predictive performance. By contrast, widely used measures of general preferences and traits (such as grit and self-control) add little incremental value - a result that we qualitatively replicate in a large population. Our findings suggest inexpensive, scalable ways to  improve dropout predictions.
        KW  - dropout
KW  - non-cognitive skills
KW  - motivation
KW  - economic preferences
KW  - beliefs
KW  - education
KW  - machine learning
        ER  -