%0 Report
        %A Epper, Thomas
%A Ibsen, Kristoffer
%A Koch, Alexander K.
%A Nafziger, Julia
        %T Predicting University Dropouts: Evidence on the Value of Student Expectations and Motivation
        %D 2026
        %8 2026 Mar
        %I Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        %C Bonn
        %7 IZA Discussion Paper
        %N 18439
        %U https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18439
        %X University dropout is costly, making it a policy priority to identify factors that predict dropout. Using a survey experiment with incoming first-year students linked to long-run administrative outcomes, we assess which information improves dropout prediction beyond standard university records. A small number of targeted, study-specific survey items - especially motivation and expectations about degree completion - substantially improve predictive performance. By contrast, widely used measures of general preferences and traits (such as grit and self-control) add little incremental value - a result that we qualitatively replicate in a large population. Our findings suggest inexpensive, scalable ways to  improve dropout predictions.
        %K dropout
%K non-cognitive skills
%K motivation
%K economic preferences
%K beliefs
%K education
%K machine learning