TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Fertig, Michael
AU  - Schmidt, Christoph M.
        TI  - Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams
        PY  - 2000/Aug/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 183
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp183
        AB  - Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.
        KW  - GMM
KW  - Variance Components
KW  - Demographic Structure
        ER  -