TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Brüll, Eduard
AU  - Mäurer, Samuel
AU  - Rostam-Afschar, Davud
        TI  - Beliefs about Bots: How Employers Plan for AI in White-Collar Work
        PY  - 2025/Oct/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 18225
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp18225
        AB  - We provide experimental evidence on how employers adjust expectations to automation risk in high-skill, white-collar work. Using a randomized information intervention among tax advisors in Germany, we show that firms systematically underestimate automatability. Information provision raises risk perceptions, especially for routine-intensive roles. Yet, it leaves short-run hiring plans unchanged. Instead, updated beliefs increase productivity and financial expectations with minor wage adjustments, implying within-firm inequality like limited rent-sharing. Employers also anticipate new tasks in legal tech, compliance, and AI interaction, and report higher training and adoption intentions.
        KW  - belief updating
KW  - firm expectations
KW  - technology adoption
KW  - innovation
KW  - technological change
KW  - automation
KW  - artificial intelligence
KW  - expertise
KW  - labor demand
KW  - white collar jobs
KW  - training
        ER  -