TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Brücker, Herbert
AU  - Siliverstovs, Boriss
        TI  - On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?
        PY  - 2005/Aug/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 1710
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp1710
        AB  - This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (ii) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.
        KW  - panel data
KW  - international migration
KW  - forecasting
        ER  -