@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp16446,
            	author={Hansen, Jörgen and Davalloo, Golnaz},
            	title={Persistent Marijuana Use: Evidence from the NLSY},
            	year={2023},
	month={Sep},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={16446},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp16446},
	abstract={We analyze persistence in marijuana consumption utilizing data from the 1997 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY97). We allow for three sources of persistence: pure state dependence, time invariant unobserved heterogeneity and persistence in idiosyncratic, time-varying shocks. We also consider intensity of consumption based on days of use per month and estimate a dynamic ordered Probit model using simulated Maximum Likelihood. We consider a Polya model that generalizes the more commonly used Markov models. The results show that there is a causal eect of previous use. However, ignoring unobserved heterogeneity and serially correlated shocks signicantly exaggerates the state dependence.},
	keywords={marijuana;persistence;state dependence;Polya model;unobserved heterogeneity;dynamic ordered probit;simulation;NLSY},
            }