@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp16291,
            	author={Bauernschuster, Stefan and Blum, Matthias and Hornung, Erik and Koenig, Christoph},
            	title={The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany},
            	year={2023},
	month={Jul},
            	institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)},
            	address={Bonn},
            	type={IZA Discussion Paper},
            	number={16291},
            	url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp16291},
	abstract={How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic's effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.
},
	keywords={issue ownership;issue salience;voting behavior;health;elections;pandemics;Weimar Republic},
            }