TY  - RPRT
        AU  - Clemens, Michael A.
        TI  - The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates
        PY  - 2022/Sep/
        PB  - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
        CY  - Bonn
        T2  - IZA Discussion Paper
        IS  - 15592
        UR  - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp15592
        AB  - Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants' skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are problematic. Methods based on cashflow accounting offer precision at the cost of bias; methods based on general equilibrium modeling address bias with limited precision and transparency. A simple adjustment greatly reduces bias in the most influential and precise estimates: conservatively accounting for capital taxes paid by the employers of immigrant labor. The adjustment is required by firms' profit-maximizing behavior, unconnected to general equilibrium effects. Adjusted estimates of the positive net fiscal impact of average recent U.S. immigrants rise by a factor of 3.2, with a much shallower education gradient. They are positive even for an average recent immigrant with less than high school education, whose presence causes a present-value subsidy of at least $128,000 to all other taxpayers collectively.
        KW  - immigration
KW  - fiscal
KW  - tax
KW  - revenue
KW  - budget
KW  - deficit
KW  - surplus
KW  - capital
KW  - cost
KW  - benefit
KW  - dividend
KW  - subsidy
KW  - burden
KW  - social security
KW  - welfare
KW  - outlays
KW  - balance
KW  - foreign
KW  - skill
KW  - government
KW  - public
        ER  -