@TechReport{iza:izadps:dp14853, author={Gorodnichenko, Yuriy and Sergeyev, Dmitriy}, title={Zero Lower Bound on Inflation Expectations}, year={2021}, month={Nov}, institution={Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)}, address={Bonn}, type={IZA Discussion Paper}, number={14853}, url={https://www.iza.org/publications/dp14853}, abstract={We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibil- ity. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a standard New Keynesian model with a zero-lower bound on inflation expectations. Unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guid- ance, are weaker. In liquidity traps, the government spending output multiplier is finite, and adverse aggregate supply shocks are not expansionary. The possibility of confidence-driven liquidity traps is attenuated.}, keywords={inflation expectations;non-rational beliefs;survey data}, }