TY - RPRT AU - Cunha, Flavio AU - Heckman, James J. AU - Navarro, Salvador TI - Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings PY - 2004/Dec/ PB - Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) CY - Bonn T2 - IZA Discussion Paper IS - 1437 UR - https://www.iza.org/publications/dp1437 AB - This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable. About 60% of variability in returns to schooling is forecastable. This has important implications for using measured variability to price risk and predict college attendance. KW - counterfactuals KW - uncertainty KW - lifecycle earnings KW - schooling KW - heterogeneity ER -